As Catalans prepare to vote on the future of their region this Sunday, experts agree that regardless of the outcome, Quebec will not experience economic repercussions. Although Quebec is a significant partner for Spain, with 40% of Canada-Spain trade passing through Quebec, the potential secession of Catalonia is not expected to impact Quebec’s economy significantly.
In 2016, trade between Quebec and Spain totaled approximately $1.855 billion, with exports amounting to $1.047 billion and imports to $809 million. Spain is Quebec’s 13th largest international client, indicating room for growth given the economic size of both regions.
Economic and Bilateral Relations
Despite strong economic ties, the referendum’s impact on Quebec appears minimal. Quebec’s trade with Spain represents only 1.1% of its total international trade, a fraction compared to its trade with the United States, which constitutes 52.4% of Quebec’s international trade.
Experts suggest the economic consequences of the referendum will primarily affect Spain and Catalonia. Miguel Escobar, President and Founder of the Spain-Canada Business Association (AAEC), believes that if secession occurs, major businesses may leave Catalonia, similar to past referendums in Quebec where companies like the Bank of Montreal relocated.
In contrast, Joan Romero, CEO of Catalonia Trade & Investment, notes that foreign investments in Catalonia have reached record levels, citing €5.13 billion in foreign investments in 2016.
Potential Implications of Catalonian Independence
An independent Catalonia might face challenges, including potential exclusion from the European Union (EU) and the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the EU. Escobar suggests rejoining the EU would be complex for Catalonia, while Romero remains optimistic about Catalonia’s prospects within the EU.
In summary, as Catalonia heads to the polls, differing opinions prevail, but the consensus remains that Quebec and Canada are unlikely to suffer economic damage from the outcome.
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“Secession in Catalonia won’t impact Quebec’s economy significantly, but it could lead to businesses leaving Catalonia, similar to past referendums in Quebec.”
Miguel Escobar – THE LUXURY OF EXPERIENCE – Interdisciplinary & International Real Estate and Economic Development Strategist
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. How significant is Quebec’s trade relationship with Spain?
Answer: Quebec accounts for 40% of Canada-Spain trade, totaling approximately $1.855 billion in 2016. However, this represents only 1.1% of Quebec’s international trade.
2. What impact will Catalonia’s referendum have on Quebec’s economy?
Answer: Experts agree that the referendum will primarily affect Spain and Catalonia, with minimal economic impact on Quebec and Canada.
3. How has foreign investment in Catalonia been affected by the referendum process?
Answer: Despite the political uncertainty, Catalonia has seen record levels of foreign investment, reaching €5.13 billion in 2016, according to Joan Romero of Catalonia Trade & Investment.
4. What challenges might an independent Catalonia face in rejoining the EU?
Answer: Miguel Escobar suggests it would be very difficult for Catalonia to rejoin the EU, whereas Joan Romero is confident that Catalonia will remain or quickly rejoin the EU.
5. How does Quebec’s trade with Spain compare to its trade with other countries?
Answer: Trade with Spain is relatively minor compared to Quebec’s trade with the United States, which constitutes 52.4% of Quebec’s international trade.
